The Failure of Risk Management by Douglas W. Hubbard

Author:Douglas W. Hubbard [Hubbard, Douglas W.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781119522041
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2020-03-04T00:00:00+00:00

EXHIBIT 8.4 Distribution of Scores from Five Different Five-Point Scales

Because responses tend to be highly clustered, small changes in scores have a large impact on ranks of risks.

I found other very curious scoring behaviors when I looked at all of this data. There seemed to be patterns in responses of which the users of these scoring methods were themselves unaware. Apparently, extreme scores (1 or 5) were much more likely for risks that were evaluated much later in a long list of various risks that had to be evaluated. This effect appeared even though these were different teams answering different questions in different orders. By the time they get to the end of their list, do users start feeling obligated to use part of the scale they haven't used much? The data are not conclusive, but given how sensitive responses are to framing and other effects, it would not surprise me if it were true. And our research shows that the clustering of responses may even exacerbate the rest of the problems I will cover next.

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